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16.07.2024

New article: A model inter-comparison exercise between the Energy Modeling Forum 37 and the European Climate and Energy Modeling Forum

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Europe and North America account for 32% of current carbon emissions. Due to distinct legacy systems, energy infrastructure, socioeconomic development, and energy resource endowment, both regions have different policy and technological pathways to reach net zero by the mid-century.

Against this background, NDC ASPECTS member Panagiotis Fragkos (E3-Modelling) participated in an international study that examines the results from net zero emission scenarios for Europe and North America that emerged from the collaboration of the European and American Energy Modeling Forums. In this analysis, an inter-comparison of various integrated assessments and bottom-up energy system models was performed.

A clear qualitative consensus emerges on five main points. First, Europe and the United States reach net zero targets with electrification, demand-side reductions, and carbon capture and sequestration technologies. Second, the use of carbon capture and sequestration is more predominant in the United States due to a steeper decarbonization schedule. Third, the buildings sector is the easiest to electrify in both regions. Fourth, the industrial sector is the hardest to electrify in the United States while the transportation is the hardest in Europe. Fifth, in both regions, the transition in the energy mix is driven by the substitution of coal and natural gas with solar and wind, but to a different extent.

Read the full study.