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How would international shipping look like in a world below 2 °C? A new study acknowledging NDC ASPECTS


NDC ASPECTS' member Panagiotis Fragkos contributed in a major multi-model exercise on the future of international shipping in a world below 2 °C. The decarbonization of shipping has become an important policy goal. While integrated assessment models (IAMs) are often used to explore climate mitigation strategies, they typically provide little information on international shipping, which accounts for emissions of around 0.7 GtCO2 yr−1.

A multi-IAM analysis of international shipping is performed and shows that the potential for decreasing annual emissions in the next decades, with reductions of up to 86% by 2050. This is primarily achieved through the deployment of low-carbon fuels. Models that represent several potential low-carbon alternatives tend to show a deeper decarbonization of international shipping, with drop-in biofuels, renewable alcohols and green ammonia standing out as the main substitutes for conventional maritime fuels.

While the results align with the 2018 emission reduction goal of the International Maritime Organization, their compatibility with the agency’s revised target is still subject to a more definitive interpretation.

Read more here (not open access).